Global Trade in 2025: Challenges, Trends, and Forecasts

Global trade continues to grow steadily, despite geopolitical tensions and rising U.S. tariffs. Analysts forecast that from 2024 to 2029, international trade will grow at an average rate of 3.1% annually, roughly in line with global GDP growth.

However, U.S. trade barriers and instability in certain regions could slow economic development.

Key Fast-Growing Markets

According to the “Trade Atlas 2025”, the most promising markets include:

• India – expected GDP growth of 6%.
• Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines – emerging economies with strong export expansion.
• China and the U.S. – projected trade growth of 12% and 10%, respectively.
• Africa and Latin America – regions experiencing consistent trade growth.

Global Trade Trends

Trade growth in South and Central Asia and ASEAN countries is expected to be 5-6% annually, while other regions will grow at 2-4% per year.

Notably, the average distance goods travel has reached 5,000 km, underscoring the globalization of trade rather than regionalization.

Trade Barriers and Their Impact

While U.S. tariff policies may create obstacles, they could also strengthen trade relationships between other regions. Analysts suggest that Trump’s tariff threats may be scaled back or delayed.

Despite this, the U.S. holds 13% of global imports and 9% of exports, making its policies influential but not solely decisive for global trade.

Contact Neolit Logistics for customized global trade logistics solutions!